Just because it's small doesn't mean we can ignore it ...
The Center for Responsible
Nanotechnology (CRN) wants us to get ready for the biggest change to
come along since the Industrial Revolution.
If you think that change is already
here in the form of computers or the Internet, think again. Those
things are so 20th century. CRN (website at crnano.org) is concerned
about the impact of "molecular manufacturing" -- the use of
nanotechnology to produce not just very small objects, but large
scale ones like appliances and even cars.
They foresee a near future in which
every home has its own "fab" -- a device between the size
of a microwave and a refrigerator that will be able to churn out
copies of everything from tableware to cell phones, and at a fraction
of the current cost.
Fabs Will Be Fabulous
These machines will even be able to
make copies of themselves, so eventually they will be inexpensive as
well. And if that sounds fantastic, consider that the first crude
generation of such devices is here already in the form of 3D printers
that can create complicated physical objects from computer designs.
(Check out the many examples at Shapeways.com.)
At first take the whole idea sounds
wonderful. But the people at CRN have devoted themselves to seeing
the potential dark flip side of this revolution. They pose questions like these:
- What happens to the world economy when virtually all production jobs are suddenly eliminated?
- Will manufactured goods become less valuable than raw materials?
- Will companies that own product designs prosecute those who copy them, the way music companies go after pirates? (Already a problem with 3D printers.)
- What happens when terrorists gain the ability to replicate thousands of copies of a weapon, or to engineer a deadly virus? (Again, happening already.)
These issues and many more are
thoughtfully presented in a series of scenarios they have developed,
and
which they have published online. They explore the possible
time-line for the advent of molecular manufacturing, who the key
players might be, and how the many impacts of violent change could
play out, both for good and ill.
About CRN
The Center for Responsible Nanotechnology is a think tank founded by Mike
Treder and Chris Phoenix. Treder is a biologist who also serves as
Managing Director of the Institute for Ethics and Emerging
Technologies. Phoenix studied nanotechnology at Stanford University
while obtaining a degree in computer science.
Starting as a series of discussions
between the two, they built CRN into a "virtual organization"
with a substantial board of directors and an active schedule of
presentations made to conferences around the world. Their aim is to
influence those in responsible positions so they will be able to
seize the opportunities of the new technology while avoiding the
pitfalls.
One thing they do not question,
however, is that the change will come. Once the possibility is there,
someone somewhere will bring it into being. Ready or not, it's only a
matter of when, and how.